I donated to QURI, a new initiative to advance forecasting and epistemics to improve the long-term future of humanity, because I believe in QURI's team's ability to make valuable contributions toward their important mission.

QURI's founders have already produced lots of helpful research into forecasting-related topics, plus they've produced useful software tools like Guesstimate and Metaforecast.  Continued work in this area will certainly be helpful to the EA community's specific goals, and could also help improve institutional decisionmaking more broadly.

QURI's team can deliver, and their current projects are promising (see "What kinds of things might QURI do in the next 10 years?" here: https://quantifieduncertainty.org/2cb83aa3c1f54066b7f0e21446ec96ef).

A new initiative to advance forecasting and epistemics for the aim of improving the long term future of humanity.

We research systematic practices to specify and estimate the most important parameters for the most important or scalable decisions. Research areas include forecasting, epistemics, evaluations, ontology, and estimation. We emphasize technological solutions that can heavily scale in the next 5 to 30 years.

We believe that humanity’s success in the next few hundred years will lie intensely on its ability to coordinate and make good decisions. If important governmental and philanthropic bodies become significantly more effective, this will make society far more resilient to many kinds of challenges ahead.

Quantified Uncertainty Research Institute

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