The AI Futures Project is a 501(c)(3) nonprofit research organization. Our first major publication was AI 2027, a scenario forecast detailing the development of artificial general intelligence (AGI) and artificial superintelligence (ASI). Based on our research, we’ve come to believe that we might cross the thresholds to AGI and ASI within just a few years—and that plausible outcomes include unprecedented concentration of power, global catastrophe, or progress and flourishing.
The world is not ready for such a radical transformation. Our second major publication was AI 2040 lays out what we think should happen instead: a coordinated U.S.-China effort to delay the development of superintelligence until 2040, make all AI research public, allow dozens of companies globally to catch up to the frontier, and intentionally enter a regime of mutually assured compute destruction.
We hope to help policymakers, AI companies, AI entrepreneurs, AI safety researchers, and the general public to make sense of what’s coming, so they can take action and steer us in a better direction. In addition to our scenario forecast, we are developing policy recommendations and tabletop exercises (wargames) for decisionmakers.
Donors
- Angelos Drakon
Thank you so much Daniel for going on Diary of a CEO and taking the time to inform the public about the possible forecasts and probabilities of AI.
Michael S Tucker The AI Futures Project, a small but influential research group led by Daniel Kokotajlo, consistently produces high-quality research aimed at promoting a responsible and aligned AI future. Their dedication to tackling AI’s most critical and ...
- Jeffery Schaefer
GSI (General Super intelligence) is coming sooner than you think! We must implement AI responsibly and with accountable oversight.
Michael S Tucker The AI Futures Project, led by Daniel Koktajlo, is essential to advancing urgent leadership and public conversations about the development and outcomes of frontier AI.
Michael S Tucker AI Futures Project, a small yet influential research group led by Daniel Kokotajlo, consistently produces high-quality research aimed at promoting a responsible and aligned AI future. As 2025 draws to a close in a few days, please consider ...
