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Conjecture Institute Inc

An institute dedicated to spreading and applying humanity's deepest and most consequential ideas.

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Advancing Critical Rationalism

Understanding how knowledge grows (the primary concern of epistemology) is one of the most fundamental questions that humanity has ever asked. Because the growth of knowledge plays a role in every human endeavor–from science to politics to creating artificial intelligence to raising children to entrepreneurship–getting the answer wrong necessarily leads to blind alleys and errors. Fortunately, Karl Popper, David Deutsch, and other thinkers have discovered and elaborated upon the right answer: that knowledge grows via conjecture and criticism.

Such a simple idea (the entire theory of which is called critical rationalism) has an enormous number of practical implications for all of the aforementioned fields and any other in which humans can make progress. While the revolutions brought forth by Newton, Darwin, and Einstein were profound and improved mankind's lot in the universe, even they were limited to particular strands of human endeavors. But epistemology is universal for any problem a person or society faces. Therefore, spreading critical rationalism and its implications will dissolve barriers to progress that most people do not even know stand in their way.

Florence, MA
conjectureinstitute.org
A 501(c)(3) nonprofit, EIN 99-3303026

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Conjecture Institute Ramps Up

In our first 14 months, Conjecture Institute has published 3 books, hosted an in-person event with attendees from around the world, and recruited 15 Fellows, 2 Senior Scientists, and 1 Ambassador. Our Advisors include physicist and philosopher David Deutsch, computer scientist and philosopher Judea Pearl, author and former Conservative MEP Daniel Hannan, and philosopher and Executive Director of the National Progress Alliance Peter Boghossian. Everything that Conjecture Institute does is a kind of applied optimism —we are correcting many of humanity's errors with some of our deepest, yet widely unknown, ideas. Examples include the role of error correction in morality, counterfactuals in physics, freedom in parenting, creativity in artificial general intelligence, knowledge creation in economics, and objectivity in aesthetics. Every book, research paper, documentary, and event that we've delivered is because of donations from you and people like you. As we explain below, we have concrete plans for other projects that we want to deliver, but we can't do it without your help. In addition to the perks we offer, know that we are eternally grateful for your support and will continue to grow Conjecture Institute in size, scope, and influence. Perks Founding Donors ($1M+): In recognition of this generous support, Founding Donors are acknowledged across all Institute publications and media, with recognition that reflects the lasting impact of their foundational contribution.  Platinum Donors ($100K+ per year): In recognition of this generous support, Platinum Donors are acknowledged in select Institute publications and media each year, corresponding to the projects and programs their annual gifts make possible.  Gold Donors ($40K+ per year): In recognition of this generous support, Gold Donors are acknowledged in one Institute publication each year, reflecting the projects and programs underway at the time of their contribution.  Silver Donors ($10K+ per year): In recognition of this generous support, Silver Donors are acknowledged in annual communications and listed on our Donors page.  Bronze Donors ($1K+ per year): In recognition of this generous support, Bronze Donors are acknowledged in annual communications and listed on our Donors page.  Our current goal is to raise $1 million in 2026. We hope to raise $250,000 by April 30th to fund our Conjecture University Course material. We also need to raise $250,000 to support our current crop of Fellows, their projects (books and film projects), and recruit new Fellows. Another $400,000 will go to long-term research in fundamental physics by Conjecture Institute affiliates. The remaining $100,000 will help us keep our annual in-person event affordable and cover our administrative costs. This is not just abstract philosophizing—in our Handbook, we explain how our affiliates have already done exactly this across several areas. For example, our first book, The Sovereign Child by Conjecture Institute Cofounder Aaron Stupple with President Logan Chipkin, explains how our best ideas in epistemology can revolutionize our conception of children and parenthood. Our Senior Scientists Vlatko Vedral and Chiara Marletto have used constructor theory, a new fundamental theory in physics, to develop an innovative, cost-effective experiment that will test whether gravity has quantum properties. Our Fellow Carlos De la Guardia is applying our best ideas in epistemology to tackling the problem of how to create an artificial general intelligence. Check out our Handbook here: https://www.conjectureinstitute.org/assets/Handbook.pdf Conjecture Institute consists of three main branches: Conjecture University includes original research in fundamental physics and mathematics as conducted by select Fellows and our Senior Scientists. It also includes online courses for public consumption. Link: https://www.conjectureinstitute.org/university Conjecture Press is our in-house book publishing arm. We have already published three books and have two more currently in production: The Farthest Reaches by Ambassador Brett Hall and Bold Conjectures, Volume II: Essays Across Physics. Link: https://www.conjectureinstitute.org/press Conjecture Studios is our media arm, which includes documentaries, science fiction films, and our podcast. Fellow Arjun Khemani's documentary, Lords of the Cosmos, is a prime example. We are currently producing Fellow Dimitri Vallein's upcoming short film, The Day I Met You. Link: https://www.conjectureinstitute.org/studios In addition to our three main branches, we host an annual in-person event and online conferences. Link: https://www.conjectureinstitute.org/events We've demonstrated that we're fully capable of delivering across all of these areas. To continue to bring all of these products to fruition, we rely on donations from people like you. Thanks for your support! Best, Logan Chipkin, Aaron Stupple, & David Kedmey
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  • Jesper Bylund

    Quite possibly a scientific revolution in how science is done.